North Carolina 2024 Governor Forecast

Republicans have their eyes on North Carolina’s governorship in 2024, which would put them in a dominating position that could give them control over the State Senate, State House, and the state's chief executive. The GOP has struggled to convert their edge in North Carolina into victories in Governor races - losing seven of the last eight races since 1992.

Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson has been nominated by the GOP - and based on his electoral record, Robinson might seem like a good bet to help the GOP break their cold streak. In 2020, Robinson was elected as Lieutenant Governor, even as Democratic Governor Roy Cooper won a second term. However, Robinson has two vulnerabilities that could give Democrats the edge in this race. First, Robinson has adopted maximal positions on abortion, gay marriage, and other cultural issues. Republicans who did the same consistently underperformed in key Governor and Senate swing races across the country in 2022. If the same is true in 2024, Robinson could be in trouble. Second, Mark Robinson has a history of making extreme comments targeting minority groups. He's made multiple comments on social media disparaging Jews, called the holocaust hogwash, and compared gay people to maggots.

Robinson refrained from making such comments about a year before he launched his run for Lieutenant Governor in 2019 and recently condemned antisemitism in a Facebook post in August. Odds are the damage politically has already been done, and it doesn't help Robinson that his Democratic opponent, Josh Stein, would be North Carolina's first-ever Jewish governor. Stein has already embraced a similar strategy to Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who beat his opponent, State Senator Doug Mastriano, in a landslide by painting him as anti-freedom and too extreme for Pennsylvania. That should alarm Republicans, as Mastriano might have been the worst performer of the 2022 midterms.

While these weaknesses may ultimately doom Robinson, it’s only fair to note that Robinson has significant advantages over Mastriano. He’s already raised more money, he’s better in front of a crowd, and he’s got a compelling life story to tell as a man who grew up in poverty in a family of ten.

Our Governor Forecast predicts the parties’ chances of securing victory in North Carolina. In 2022, RacetotheWH correctly called 94.4% of Governor races, tied with FiveThirtyEight and Split-Ticket for the best record of any forecaster.