Montana Senate Predictions & Polls

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In 2006, Jon Tester won an improbable victory over long-time Republican Senator Conrad Burns, surfing a towering blue wave to claim a victory by less than 1%. What came next was even more improbable. Tester kept defying the odds, winning re-election in 2012 and 2018 - while Democratic Presidential contenders continued to lose the Big Sky state by double digits in all but one election this millennium.

Tester – a lifelong farmer who sometimes takes two weeks off the campaign trail to harvest, strip, and bin the barley in his farm – has a distinct style and brand from other politicians, and has deep roots in rural Montana. That’s helped him successfully win over a significant number of Republicans. The defining question of the election will be whether Tester can continue to outswim a tide that has pulled under the rest of the Democratic party. In 2007, Democrats held seven of the eight statewide positions, including both Senators. In 2023, Jon Tester is the only one left standing.

Our Senate Forecast predicts Tester's chances of securing another victory in Montana against Republican Businessman Tim Sheehy - who became the decisive favorite for the nomination after Congressman Matt Rosendale dropped out of the race. Every day, the forecast is updated with the latest information.

In 2022, RacetotheWH correctly called more Senate races than any other forecaster and came within one seat of perfectly predicting the final balance in the House of Representatives.