Republicans have their eyes set on the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. Can they Upset Michael Bennet?
Photo Credit: US Senate
By Joseph Brusgard
Date: September 29th, 2022
Republicans have their eyes set on the Rocky Mountains of Colorado, hoping to return to relevancy in a state that has turned sharply against them in recent years. It wasn’t always this way in the Centennial State – which used to be one of the nation’s marquee swing states.
Republicans have lost support with white college-educated voters across the country since 2014, and that has cost them dearly in Colorado – which has a higher percentage of these voters than any other state in the Union (43.4%). As a direct result, Joe Biden won by a 13.5% margin over Donald Trump, a victory that would have been inconceivable eight years ago.
The pivotal question in Colorado is whether their 2020 election is an outlier or the new normal for Republicans. Consultant Craig Hughes is firmly in the first camp. Hughes was Michael Bennet's Campaign Manager in 2010 when he successfully navigated Bennet's campaign to victory in an otherwise brutal election year for Democrats. He is currently advising his re-election campaign.
Hughes told us that "Donald Trump drove people away from the Republican Party. So, I think that the 2020 election was an anomaly and that a 13-point win is an absolute high water mark of where we can be here.”
That’s music to Republicans’ ears, considering they now control less power in the state legislature than at any time since World War 2. There are a few reasons why Republicans are hopeful that their fortunes could improve in 2022, beyond just a potentially better national environment.
Unaffiliated voters make up 44% of Colorado's electorate, outnumbering Democrats and Republicans. These voters will have the final say in who will be the winner. Successful Colorado politicians thrive at appealing to these independent-minded voters. To that end, the GOP has nominated a candidate that may just fit the bill in Joe O’Dea.
O’Dea’s victory came as a great relief for Republicans in the state, who faced a serious risk of nominating one of the most extreme candidates in the country. State Representative Ron Hanks, could have been the proverbial iceberg to the Colorado GOP's titanic, as he had made his entire campaign about 2020 election conspiracies. However, thanks to unaffiliated voters, O’Dea won the nomination, and his candidacy has changed perceptions of the race.
O'Dea has taken a different tact than many other Republicans and eschewed any mention of the cultural wars - a must in a socially moderate state like Colorado. He supports fewer abortion restrictions than other candidates, supporting a legal right to an abortion up to 20 weeks. O’Dea has also been critical of Lindsey Graham’s abortion ban bill.
O'Dea is also one of the few Republicans calling for the party to outright move on from Trump. "I think that seeing a Biden-Trump rematch again in 2024 would rip the country apart," O'Dea said. "I think a lot of people are ready to move our country forward. So, I wouldn't support him running again."
O'Dea has instead focused firmly on pocketbook issues like inflation and gas prices. With prices going up across the nation, O’Dea’s campaign approach is perhaps the best tack in a state like Colorado, and as a result, some national Republicans see this race in play.
However, Democrats have a proven winner on the ticket. That's Democratic incumbent Senator Michael Bennet, former Superintendent for Denver Public Schools who was appointed Senator to replace Ken Salazar in 2009. Bennet proved his mettle as a candidate a year later in the 2010 midterms, surviving a historic red wave that washed out many of his fellow Democratic Senators. He won again in 2016 by almost 6%. That's a particularly encouraging sign for Democrats, as Colorado has since shifted about 5% to the left.
As Senator, Bennet has been a low-key moderate promoting legislation supporting children and the environment. He sponsored the Child Tax Credit and secured Colorado drought protection funding from the Inflation Reduction Act, a top issue in Colorado as drought decreases water levels in the Colorado River.
Political wisdom has long held that elections are decided by the economy, or as James Carville put so elegantly, “It’s the economy, stupid.” Just a scant few months ago, it was undoubtedly the number one issue. The Supreme Court’s recent decision in Dobbs V. Jackson has made this far more complicated, overnight erasing reproductive rights that had existed for nearly half a century.
The latest polling, and special elections, provide a strong indication that it’s igniting many Americans to respond via the ballot box. Michael Bennet has taken note and has started to tout his pro-choice record, such as highlighting his support for legislation emphasizing. his support for legislation protecting women’s right to cross state lines for an abortion.
While O’Dea is more moderate on abortion than most Republicans, he opposes Colorado’s recent abortion law, allowing third-trimester abortions, and said he supported Trump’s nominees to the Courts, including the Justices who overturned Roe. Like many other Democrats around the country, Bennet has launched ads hitting O’Dea on the issue.
As abortion has moved to the front and center, this battle will be fought and won in the suburbs. Keep a close eye on Jefferson County, a highly educated suburban Denver county, which has swung significantly to the left in the last four presidential cycles, mirroring national trends among college-educated suburban voters.
Former Bennet Campaign Manager Craig Hughes said, “Jefferson County used to be considered the ultimate swing county, that if you won Jefferson County, you won the state.”
“I think there’s very little doubt Democrats will carry Jefferson County. The question is can Republicans keep it much closer than they have in recent elections… if they are unable to keep it close there, they will have a very hard time making up those votes elsewhere.”
The polling suggests that Bennet is positioned to do well again, albeit not by Biden's 2020 margins. He's leading the RacetotheWH polling average by 8.2%. Georgina Bevan, a spokesperson for Michael Bennet’s campaign has expressed confidence in Bennet’s chances, arguing that “Michael understands the needs of our state and Coloradans will re-elect him this November because of his proven record of delivering for hard-working families.”
Our Senate forecast, which was one of the most accurate in the nation in 2020, agrees that Senator Bennet is in a strong position. Today, the race lies on the knife’s edge between Lean D and Likely D, and we project that he will win by 7.6%, with O’Dea having a 15% chance for an upset. It will be updated every day from now until election day.